伊朗为何要从伊拉克袭击以色列

Iran Why Attack Israel from Iraq?

Since ancient times, the geopolitics of the Middle East have been complex and tense. In recent years, the relationship between Iran and Israel has become increasingly close, especially since America withdrew from the Joint Declaration with Israel. This region becomes more sensitive and unstable when America exits the scene.

The historical background and current situation:

We need to review the complicated interaction between Iran and Israel in the 1970s. Israel was always one of Iran's long-time enemies. The two countries have had numerous conflicts including the 1988 "Bahrain War" and subsequent military exercises and intelligence-sharing issues. Israel also deployed its forces in Iraq as an answer for Iran’s support of terrorism.

Recent years have seen some easing of tensions as international conditions changed. Although relations between Iran and Israel were mellowed, they became much more intricate post-American withdrawal. America no longer dominated the region; this provided opportunities for other nations to speak up and gain influence. Post-Trump America's withdrawal from the Joint Declaration left Iran and Israel on equal footing—both being rivals but equally important partners. Both sought to balance each other out, thus safeguarding their own interests.

Geopolitical considerations and strategic goals:

Despite the relative calmness of the relationship today, geopolitical factors still cannot be ignored. As the second-largest oil producer in the world, Iran controls the oil resources around the Persian Gulf which affects Iran’s economic stability. If Israel is attacked, it would not only damage Iran's standing in the region but also harm its oil exports, thereby threatening Iran’s interests.

Israel, as a pawn in the region, has attempted various ways to weaken Iran's influence. Despite threats to Israeli security, both sides seek to maintain diplomatic relationships with China and Russia. Israel hopes to strengthen its military and economic power. They aim to retaliate against any attack, even if such retaliation does not align with traditional notions of justice.

Defensive offensive strategy:

We must recognize that attacking Israel from Iraq could be a defensive offensive strategy. Such actions reflect the complexity of geoeconomics in the region. Any potential threat to Israel is closely watched. Iran aims to convey its firm stance through these actions, showing its ability to protect itself despite external pressure. It also serves to boost domestic morale, especially during tough times. This signals that Iran will not easily cede under external pressure.

This strategy represents both a challenge to regional geopolitics and a mutual restraint among rival powers. While there are uncertainties about future developments, we can predict that the Middle East's dynamics will continue to be influenced by multiple factors, including America's re-entry, international support/opposition, and dynamic balance of major players.

In this process, both Iran and Israel face significant tests. They must find new equilibrium points to avoid future escalation.